Live Blogging Election Night 2018

6:45 pm

So, I’m going to try to live-blog the results tonight; feel free to pause me or something if it gets to be too much.

We just got back from voting, and our polling place was the busiest I’ve ever seen it. Joanne got ballot #342 for our precinct. Since there’s four precincts at our polling place they’ve probably seen more than 1200 voters today. Enthusiasm seems high, to the point that they ran out of “I voted” stickers. That’s a good sign. I’m a little disappointed not to get a sticker, but I think I like the fact that they ran out better.

One of the things that I’ve been pondering is the political atmosphere and it struck me today that my congressman has been behaving like his position is hanging by a thread. He’s being too venomous toward his opponent for my liking. It’s odd. 538 gives him a 4 in 5 chance of retaining his seat, but that isn’t what his demeanor says. It’s possible that he’s just kind of a jackass, but maybe there something more there.

Speaking of 538, Nate Silver tells us that the data looks good for the democrats across a wide variety of districts; it’s possible that the there’s more good news for them in districts that they aren’t polling.

So, here’s my best guess for this evening.

Democrats moderately out perform expectations.

Democrats take back the house and beat the average by a small amount. It looks like the median projection is D+38 seats, I’m going to guess D+40 or 41.

Republican’s gain one in the Senate. I don’t think Heitkamp is going to pull it out in North Dakota. The “outperforming” gets people like O’Rourke uncomfortably to victory, but not quite there. That said a swing of three seats in either direction wouldn’t surprise me. In the last few days, the Republicans’ odds in the Senate have dropped from 6 in 7 to 4 in 5. If that’s a lagging indicator, the D’s might do better than I think.

This feels like a year, like 1980 or 2006 when all the last minute swing goes in one direction. It will be interesting see how this one plays out.

7:15 pm

First amusing thing to run across this evening.

Final Texas Senate Race Polls Show That Donald Trump’s Campaigning May Have Actually Hurt Ted Cruz

7:50 pm

First Democratic pick-up of the evening in VA-10.

Numbers in Florida are looking closer to 2012 than 2016 with Gilliam and Nelson leading. But there lots of vote to to come in still.

 

8:01 pm

Florida 27 is the Second Democratic pick up of the night. That might be my old CD.

8:24 pm

With 90% of the vote in, it looks like the Republicans are just barely in the lead for FL Governor and Senator. Where is the vote still out? That’s going to make all the difference. The Democrats’ early lead came from quick returns in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.  30% of precincts still to come in Broward, 25% in Miami-Dade.  Palm Beach is almost all in.

9:13 pm

They called the Indiana Senate race for Braun, the Republican. That’s a Republican pick-up. Blackburn, the Republican wins in Tennessee. Tennessee was one of the few potential pick-ups for Democrats. I think the Senate is out of reach for the Democrats at this point.

9:20 pm

There’s fewer than 100 votes separating O’Rourke and Cruz.

9:36 pm

Now O’Rourke is ahead in Texas by about 0.4%.

9:40 pm

Jared Polis is the first openly gay man to be elected Governor of a state, namely Colorado.

9:56 pm

The New York Times estimates the probability that the Democrats will win the House is 95%. MSNBC estimates the probability that the Democrats win is 80%.

Meanwhile 538 has the Democrats’ chances at 7 in 10. Still looking strong.

10:03 pm.

The Democrats just picked up a House seat in Kansas. The Democrats are doing surprisingly well in Kansas. The Democrat, Laura Kelly, wins the Governorship.
 
Meanwhile Cruz has retaken the lead in Texas.
 
The good news for Democrats is starting to roll in.
 
Meanwhile, the races in Florida are looking red.
 
Mitt Romney is going to the Senate from Utah.

10:05 pm

Staten Island is a conservative area in NYC. The Democrats pick up a seat there.

10:12 pm

Heitkamp loses in ND. Net gain for the Republicans.

10:18 pm

The just called the Senate race in Texas for Cruz. That guarantees the Senate will stay in Republican hands. The Senate could look really bad for Democrats.

This is still the best night for Democrats in Texas in 30 years. And Beto’s run will have coat tails.

10:51 pm

Been busy, but this is interesting. The Maine 2nd may be the first Congressional District to be decided by instant run-off. More of that, Please.

11:01 pm

Gillum is conceding the Governor’s race in Florida. Expect to hear endless discussions about the Bradley effect.

 

11:05 pm

Here’s a bit of perspective. The Democrats have won more than twice as many Senate seats as the Republicans tonight. You wouldn’t know it to listen to the coverage.

11:26 pm

The democrats have a net gain of 23 seats, giving them a majority in the House of representatives.

11:35 pm

It looks like my Republican congressman has been reelected, although I have seen no election results.

12:16 am

It’s time to head off to bed. Tomorrow I’ll look into the thing that I really want to know about; state legislatures. Signing off.

 

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