No DNC Bump & Dancing Inside the Margins
Quicker than usual; I have to be ready to Teach on Monday. There are actually two sets of results here. I’ll explain.
Results for 28 August 2024:
As usual, we collected data on Wednesday. We’re in virtually the same place as we were last week. Here Harris wins about 62% of the simulations and Trump takes about 37%. The likelihood of a tie is still at about 1%. Let’s look at the state shifts.
| State | Change |
|---|---|
| Arizona | Barely Democratic to Barely Republican |
| Maine AL | Leaning Democratic to Strongly Democratic |
| Maine 2nd | Barely Republican to Leaning Democratic |
| North Carolina | Barely Democratic to Toss Up |
| Wisconsin | Toss Up to Leaning Democratic |
There is more dancing of the results that live inside the margin of error. The Maine shifts are the most significant here and that’s why the probability barely moved even though Trump pulled ahead with the electoral count. The light blue, light red, and tan states all have probabilities at or near 50/50; those will bounce back and forth in the simulations but the dark blue and the dark red? Those stay on one side for the majority of the trials. If something moves into one of those categories we’re likely to see it.
So, we’re holding steady with the odds of a Harris victory sitting at 3 to 2; there’s no real evidence of a bump from the Democratic convention. Globally the numbers still seem to be trending in Harris’s direction.
Results for 29 August 2024:
Several polls that showed a movement towards Harris in the swing states arrived on 29 August. Here are the results from that next day. I won’t give these results their own write-up because I played with the parameters; there are no apples-to-apples comparisons.
Last Words
These results are making me think about my methodology; I’d like to tamp down the variance and I’m not sure the colors are giving the best indication of the state of the race. Still, I don’t want to switch things up too many times.
So, I’m pondering. I may just let the status quo ride and make changes for 2028. If I make more alterations I’ll use them until Election Day. My plan is to have everything sorted by Wednesday.
Comics, the Universe, and Everything 