Harris’s Momentum Continues
Let’s GO!
The State of the Race
The campaign seems to have slowed down somewhat while the Democrats gear up for their convention. Vice President Harris and President Biden will appear together today (8/15) in Maryland while Governor Walz is on his own tour of the Northeast. JD Vance is in Pennsylvania today while yet another controversial quote has surfaced.
Donald Trump has been a bit more active than he had been. This week we’ve seen his interview with Elon Musk on X and a last-minute rally in North Carolina which was supposed to be focused on the economy. The economic content was sparse while Trump frequently veered off-topic and attacked his opponents.
Results:
An explanation of how the map was created and our scheme for finding our polling averages and can be found here: Methodology.
As usual, we entered the polling data into our model and ran 40,000 simulated elections. If the election were held today, it appears Vice President Harris would have about a 74% chance of winning while Donald Trump would win about 25% of the time. The likelyhood of an Electoral College tie is roughly 1%.
Remember that this is an estimate and it is only based on the current polling numbers. As we’ve seen these can change dramatically over three weeks; and we’re nearly three months from the election.
Given this data, Harris leads and the odds of her winning could be as high as 3 to 1.
Trends:
The race continues to move in Harris’s direction. This is evident if we look at the movements of the state polls between last week and this. There’s one exception to the trend;
Michigan changed from Strongly Democratic to Barely Democratic. This was expected; the polling average last week was based on a single poll that was a clear outlier. That poll, which had Harris up by ten fell out of the average was replaced by two more typical results.
The other shifts tell a consistent story.
- Texas: Strongly Republican to Leans Republican
- North Carolina: Barely Republican to Toss Up
- Arizona: Barely Republican to Barely Democratic
- Pennsylvania: Toss Up to Leans Democratic
These all show movement toward Harris. In addition, within the last week, Harris is now leading:
- in national popular vote polls and polling averages,
- in states with a total of more than 270 electoral votes,
- on forecasting sites like 538 and The Cook Political Report, and
- on betting sites like Polymarket.
The comparative attendance and enthusiasm at Democratic vs. Republican Rallies also speak in Harris’s favor.
The momentum remains on Harris’s side.
Last Words
The Harris campaign has consolidated its lead over the last week. It’s no surprise; just over three weeks ago most voters believed that the presumptive nominees of both major political parties were too old to effectively serve as president. The voters wanted a new candidate in the race. With President Biden’s decision to withdraw his candidacy, they got one. The political landscape shifted and the Democrats are capitalizing on that by running an effective, aggressive, and positive campaign. Likely, they will further strengthen their position throughout their convention. But conventional wisdom would then suggest that things will shift back toward being competitive as the campaign begins in earnest and Harris and Walz have to add some specifics to their policy proposals.
But maybe not.
Donald Trump spent months attacking President Biden and implying he should withdraw from the race. He should have been prepared when it happened. But he wasn’t.
At the RNC, with the possibility of Biden’s withdrawal growing more likely, Trump could have picked a running mate that could bring more voters into their base. But he didn’t.
In the aftermath of an assassination attempt, Trump could have changed tactics, eschewed political violence, and become a candidate aiming to unite the nation. But he couldn’t.
Trump could have gone on the campaign trail to court voters and make the case for the Republican ticket every day since 21 July. But he wouldn’t.
Instead, he picked a running mate who appealed to the extreme edge of his base and who is alienating voters, childless cat ladies, and post-menopausal females.
And he didn’t turn away from political violence. When he mentioned Paul Pelosi at the RNC he pantomimed a hammer. “Bam, bam, bam!”
And there’s nothing new in his rhetoric. He hasn’t even bothered to change his talking points. the “Worst President in American History,” became the “Worst Vice President” and “Lyin’ Joe Biden” has turned into “Lyin’ Kamala Harris.” Simplistic.
And the lies are all the same no matter what Trump wants to tell us. The 2020 Election wasn’t stolen. Trump didn’t have the biggest inaugural crowd ever. He wasn’t the best President for African Americans since Abraham Lincoln. We are actually better off than we were four years ago. The list goes on.
This election could still go either way, but it’s getting close to the point where it will take something as dramatic as a major party candidate withdrawing from the election for that to happen. But it’s getting late to try that; ballots are closing.
If Donald Trump doesn’t get back on the campaign trail and give the country something more than the same old grievances, the same old falsehoods, and the same old show this election could be a rout. We’re tired of it.
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